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Third Assessment report: Climate Change 2001. Working Group II Report “Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability.
One of several primary issues this report has been organized to address is a key question before the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): What are the potential impacts for societies and ecosystems of different atmospheric concentrations of GHGs and aerosols that absorb and scatter sunlight (United Nations, 1992)? Answering this question is a necessary step in assessing what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system.” This report does not make any judgments about what level of concentrations is “dangerous” because that is not a question of science per se but a value judgment about relative risks and tradeoffs. The task is to make the evidence about relative risks as clear as possible. This report therefore describes what is known about the distribution of impacts; how, why, and to what extent they differ from region to region or place to place; and how this relates to the distribution of vulnerability and capacity to adapt. However, it critically assesses the literature to help inform policymakers about effects associated with different concentration levels, so they may judge what levels of risk are acceptable. Assessment of what constitutes dangerous interference in the climate systems will require analysis of the interactions of climate change and social and economic conditions, which are inextricably linked. Understanding the role of socioeconomic factors, particularly adaptive responses and capacity, is critical.