Source

Type

Peer Review

Audience

Notes

Abstract. We have here a classic example of the problem or paradox of co-operation (also known as the Prisoner’s Dilemma or occasionally the Tragedy of the Commons) referred to at the outset: the science tells us clearly that we need to act now to reduce inputs of greenhouse gases; but unless all countries act (in equitable proportions), the virtuous will be economically disadvantaged whilst all suffer the consequences of the sinners’ inaction. In this sense, the climate change disaster which looms this century is an appallingly large-scale experiment in the social sciences.

If this experiment is to end in success for humankind, then it is essential that progress be made at the Montreal meeting. We need countries to initiate a study into the consequences of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at, below, or above twice pre-industrial levels, so that the international community can assess the potential costs of their actions or lack of them. Such an analysis could focus the minds of political leaders, currently worried more about the costs to them of acting now than they are by the consequences for the planet of acting too little, too late.