Bioclimate.org: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in Southwestern North America

Authors	Seager R. , Ting M. , Held I.M. , Kushnir Y. , Lu J. , Vecchi G. , Huang H. , Harnik N. , Leetmaa A. , Lau N. , Li C. , Velez J. , Naik N.
Source	American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) (189)
Type	P - Paper (2851)
Peer Review	1 - High (2301)
Audience	S - Specialist (3514)
Pages	1181-1184
Journal Number	316
Notes	Abstract How anthropogenic climate change will impact hydroclimate in the arid regions of Southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus amongst climate models that this region will dry significantly in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be underway. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought, or the Dust Bowl and 1950s droughts, will, within the coming years to decades, become the new climatology of the American Southwest.